Black Friday is no longer growing automatically
Since the German Retail Association began collecting data in 2016, sales figures for Black Friday and Cyber Monday had long been heading in only one direction: upwards. At one point, year-on-year growth rates stood at more than 20 per cent. In 2023, growth slowed, and in 2024 it stagnated. For 2025, the German Retail Association finally forecast a decline for the first time: to around 5.8 billion euros, just under two per cent below the previous year.
For retailers, this changes the starting point. Growth no longer arises automatically from the increasing popularity of these promotional days. If the overall volume stagnates or falls, it becomes more important to prevail against the competition for existing purchasing intentions.
Brick-and-mortar retail remains relevant, but footfall is lacking
According to PwC Germany’s 2025 Black Friday survey, consumers planned to spend 26 per cent of their budget in high-street shops. A further 13 per cent was accounted for by goods ordered online and collected in-store. This meant that just under 40 per cent of planned spending involved a visit to a shop. At the same time, the proportion of spending on online purchases with home delivery fell from 68 per cent in the previous year to 61 per cent.
The potential for brick-and-mortar retail is therefore clearly there. However, the reality in shops in 2025 looked quite different: more than 60 per cent of around 300 retail companies surveyed by the HDE rated business in the last week of November as weak. 70 per cent reported fewer visitors than in the previous year. The HDE accordingly identified low customer footfall at many locations as the main reason for the lack of momentum.
This is precisely where a key task of promotional communication lies: a willingness to buy alone does not generate footfall. Retailers must provide a specific reason why consumers should visit their particular branch. It is not enough to simply shout about prices as loudly as possible during Black Week. Media planning must start at the very stage where purchasing decisions are being formed.
Credibility is the key to closing a sale
Alongside reach and timing, another factor is gaining in importance: trust in the offer. This is because expectations regarding Black Friday discounts are high. In the PwC survey, across all product categories examined, only a discount of 36 per cent on average was considered a good deal. However, the actual price differences can be significantly smaller. The Black Friday price analysis published by idealo in 2025 examined more than 10,000 products across 100 product categories and compared prices on Black Friday 2024 with the average prices from the previous October. Although 73 per cent of the products examined were cheaper, the average saving was just seven per cent.
Data from YouGov and SINUS shows that consumers are increasingly sceptical about such discrepancies: in 2025, 64 per cent of those surveyed felt that Black Friday offers often involved ‘fake discounts’. 57 per cent found the ubiquitous advertising surrounding the event annoying.
For promotional communication, this means that a high advertised discount alone is no guarantee of customer engagement. The easier it becomes to compare prices, the more important it is to have transparent offers and credible pricing arguments.
From discounts to a drive-to-store strategy
What does this mean for high-street retailers? Black Friday remains a relevant marketing opportunity. However, retailers should not reduce the promotional phase to the question of how high a discount must be to stand out from the competition.
In the brick-and-mortar retail sector in particular, media planning should be viewed more as a ‘drive-to-store’ task: Which target groups are located within the relevant catchment area? When do they start planning their purchases? Through which channels can they be reached during this phase? And what specific trigger ultimately brings them into the shop?
Regional relevance is becoming increasingly important in this context. An attractive offer becomes particularly valuable for high-street retailers when it is visible in locations where an actual visit to the shop is a realistic prospect. Communication of the offer must therefore take into account reach, relevance to the target audience, geographical proximity and timing.
We support you in avoiding a siloed approach to different channels, instead helping you to create a coordinated promotional communication strategy that becomes a competitive advantage.